4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 59

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 10

What Actually Happened

(:13) 11-C.Johnston punts 55 yards to IND 4, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-33-A.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.89 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 59, worth -1.69 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 18, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model