Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 75

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Houston Texans 3

(14:05) 8-R.Sanchez punts 49 yards to HOU 26, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.50 EP
56% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 75, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model