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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 65

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(12:18) 2-M.Ingram right end to HOU 36 for 1 yard (94-T.Lewis, 58-B.Okereke).

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.42 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 65, worth -3.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 23, worth -1.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model