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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 70

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:39) 11-C.Johnston punts 49 yards to IND 21, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 27 for 6 yards (46-J.Weeks).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.64 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 70, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 28, worth -1.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model