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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 55

Houston Texans 3 – Indianapolis Colts 17

What Actually Happened

(9:01) 11-C.Johnston punts 45 yards to IND 10, Center-46-J.Weeks. 21-N.Hines to IND 12 for 2 yards (33-A.Moore).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.57 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 55, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 16, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP