4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 17 at the 50

Houston Texans 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(5:17) 11-C.Johnston punts 42 yards to IND 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 21-N.Hines.

The Three Options

GO -1.44 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.57 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -3.02 EP
KICK -1.96 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.69 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model