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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 5 at the 23

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:04) 6-M.Badgley 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.93 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.71 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model