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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 28

Indianapolis Colts 24 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(6:29) 21-N.Hines left end to HOU 21 for 7 yards (39-T.Mitchell, 1-L.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.15 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 28, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 38, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model