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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 76

Indianapolis Colts 31 – Houston Texans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:16) 8-R.Sanchez punts 36 yards to HOU 40, Center-46-L.Rhodes, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.51 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 76, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 34, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP