PHI @ CAR — 4th & Data

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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni

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Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule

Sunday 2021-10-10 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

PHI

33.6%

CAR

66.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

CAR defense: -0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
CAR offense: +0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
PHI offense: +0.059 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
PHI defense: +0.131 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
QB edge to CAR: Sam Darnold (CAR) +0.154 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.137 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 18

–

CAR 26

Projected margin: CAR by 8 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

PHI

Lane Johnson T Out Not injury related - personal matter

CAR

Cameron Erving T Out Neck

Shaq Thompson LB Out Foot

Christian McCaffrey RB Doubtful Hamstring

Yetur Gross-Matos DE Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 21

–

CAR 18

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 11:17 FG CAR (11:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. PHI 0 – CAR 3
Q1 06:50 FG PHI (6:50) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 3 – CAR 3
Q1 03:12 TD CAR (3:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 82-T.Tremble for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 3 – CAR 9
Q2 02:45 FG CAR (2:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. PHI 3 – CAR 13
Q2 02:35 SAF CAR (2:35) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts FUMBLES (Aborted) at PHI 11, ball out of bounds in End Zone, SAFETY. PHI 3 – CAR 15
Q2 00:04 FG PHI (:04) 4-J.Elliott 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs. PHI 6 – CAR 15
Q3 00:12 TD PHI (:12) 64-B.Toth reported in as eligible. 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 12 – CAR 15
Q4 08:33 FG CAR (8:33) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. PHI 13 – CAR 18
Q4 02:42 TD PHI (2:42) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left end for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 19 – CAR 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 PHI 4th & 11 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34%

(13:46) 8-A.Siposs punts 41 yards to CAR 38, Center-45-R.Lovato, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.
Q1 CAR 4th & 10 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 74%

(11:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q1 PHI 4th & 4 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(10:22) 8-A.Siposs punts 64 yards to CAR 5, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
Q1 PHI 4th & 12 at the 12

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

(6:50) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.
Q1 PHI 4th & 5 at the 54

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 43%

(:36) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to CAR 5, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-A.Erickson pushed ob at CAR 27 for 22 yards (49-A.Singleton).
Q2 CAR 4th & 10 at the 50

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 24%

(13:00) 3-J.Charlton punts 42 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.
Q2 PHI 4th & 8 at the 78

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39%

(10:07) 8-A.Siposs punts 60 yards to CAR 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 26 for 8 yards (57-T.Edwards; 54-S.Bradley).
Q2 CAR 4th & 13 at the 77

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(7:53) 3-J.Charlton punts 44 yards to PHI 33, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.
Q2 PHI 4th & 19 at the 76

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 26%

(5:58) 8-A.Siposs punts 16 yards to PHI 40, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.
Q2 CAR 4th & 17 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 84%

(2:45) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q2 CAR 4th & 2 at the 46

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP

p(convert) 62% p(FG) 33%

(:39) 3-J.Charlton punts 30 yards to PHI 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.
Q3 CAR 4th & 10 at the 69

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(12:47) 3-J.Charlton punts 40 yards to PHI 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at CAR 49 for 22 yards (3-J.Charlton).
Q3 CAR 4th & 8 at the 49

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 39% p(FG) 26%

(9:10) 3-J.Charlton punts 33 yards to PHI 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.
Q3 PHI 4th & 18 at the 65

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25%

(5:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to CAR 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 28 for 9 yards (54-S.Bradley).
Q3 CAR 4th & 7 at the 40

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 49%

(2:35) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 31

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP

p(convert) 53% p(FG) 72%

(8:33) 5-Z.Gonzalez 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.
Q4 PHI 4th & 4 at the 39

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 52%

(5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz.
Q4 CAR 4th & 3 at the 54 late-game

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP

p(convert) 56%

(4:00) 3-J.Charlton punt is BLOCKED by 57-T.Edwards, Center-44-J.Jansen, RECOVERED by PHI-54-S.Bradley at CAR 27.