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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 30

Carolina Panthers 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:17) 5-Z.Gonzalez 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.86 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model