4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Carolina Panthers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 4-J.Elliott 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-8-A.Siposs.

The Three Options

GO +1.41 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.89 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 12, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 22, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model