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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 69

Carolina Panthers 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(12:47) 3-J.Charlton punts 40 yards to PHI 29, Center-44-J.Jansen. 18-J.Reagor ran ob at CAR 49 for 22 yards (3-J.Charlton).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.32 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 69, worth -3.88 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 27, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model