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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 40

Carolina Panthers 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(2:35) (Field Goal formation) 5-Z.Gonzalez punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-44-J.Jansen, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK -0.34 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP