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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 8 at the 49

Carolina Panthers 15 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(9:10) 3-J.Charlton punts 33 yards to PHI 16, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.41 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.19 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.73 EP
KICK -1.48 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.74 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model