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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 50

Carolina Panthers 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 3-J.Charlton punts 42 yards to PHI 8, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.33 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 50, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.63 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 14, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model