Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 18 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 6 – Carolina Panthers 15

(5:48) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to CAR 19, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 28 for 9 yards (54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -2.03 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.82 EP
75% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model