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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 78

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 8-A.Siposs punts 60 yards to CAR 18, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 26 for 8 yards (57-T.Edwards; 54-S.Bradley).

The Three Options

GO -2.30 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.24 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 35, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model