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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 54

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(:36) 8-A.Siposs punts 49 yards to CAR 5, Center-45-R.Lovato. 13-A.Erickson pushed ob at CAR 27 for 22 yards (49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.56 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model