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Tennessee Titans

2-2 HC Mike Vrabel
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New York Jets

1-3 HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2021-10-03 · 13:00 ET MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

TEN
73.5%
NYJ
26.5%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.354 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to TEN: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.459 vs Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.080 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: -0.026 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
  • TEN offense: +0.007 EPA/play over its last 8 games (18th in the league)
  • TEN defense: +0.154 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

TEN 23 16–30
–
NYJ 18 11–25
Projected margin: TEN by 5 Projected total: 41

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 4

TEN

A.J. Brown WR Out Hamstring
Bud Dupree LB Out Knee
Caleb Farley CB Out Shoulder
Julio Jones WR Out Hamstring
Brett Kern P Out right Groin
Larrell Murchison DT Out Elbow

NYJ

Marcus Maye S Out Ankle
Elijah Moore WR Out Concussion
Jeff Smith WR Out Concussion
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Groin
Tyler Kroft TE Questionable Rib
La'Mical Perine RB Questionable Illness

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 4 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TEN 24
–
NYJ 27

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:10 FG TEN (7:10) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend. TEN 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 12:58 FG TEN (12:58) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend. TEN 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 10:33 FG TEN (10:33) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend. TEN 9 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 04:57 TD NYJ (4:57) (Shotgun) 32-Mi.Carter up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 9 – NYJ 6
  • Q3 00:23 FG NYJ (:23) 6-M.Ammendola 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. TEN 9 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 13:18 TD TEN (13:18) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 15 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 11:34 TD NYJ (11:34) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 82-J.Crowder for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 09:16 TD NYJ (9:16) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 84-C.Davis for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 17 – NYJ 23
  • Q4 00:19 TD TEN (:19) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short left to 13-C.Batson for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TEN 23 – NYJ 24
  • Q5 04:33 FG NYJ (4:33) 6-M.Ammendola 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead. TEN 24 – NYJ 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:27) 4-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 43 for 16 yards (34-J.Hardee).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 TEN 4th & 17 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 83%

    (7:10) 14-R.Bullock 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:16) 4-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to TEN 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 31 for 22 yards (85-T.Wesco). PENALTY on TEN-92-O.Adeniyi, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 31.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 18 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 80%

    (12:58) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 14 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 92%

    (10:33) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TEN 4th & 2 at the 67
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.72 EP
    p(convert) 61%

    (3:28) 8-J.Townsend punts 12 yards to TEN 45, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 29%

    (1:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TEN 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 18 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (11:12) 8-J.Townsend punts 63 yards to NYJ 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 14 yards (21-M.Farley; 85-M.Pruitt).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 68%

    (9:01) 4-T.Morstead punts 52 yards to TEN 19, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TEN 4th & 19 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 44%

    (3:42) 8-J.Townsend punts 30 yards to NYJ 13, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (:23) 6-M.Ammendola 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-T.Morstead.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (9:27) 8-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to NYJ 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 18 yards (8-J.Townsend).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (8:53) 8-J.Townsend punts 41 yards to NYJ 34, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (7:07) 4-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TEN 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers. PENALTY on NYJ-34-J.Hardee, Fair Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TEN 4th & 4 at the 20 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 90%

    (3:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (35-S.Neasman) [37-B.Hall].

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 10 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (2:21) 4-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TEN 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 26 for 6 yards (34-J.Hardee; 27-I.Dunn).

    See the full breakdown →