Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 69

Tennessee Titans 9 – New York Jets 7

(11:12) 8-J.Townsend punts 63 yards to NYJ 6, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 20 for 14 yards (21-M.Farley; 85-M.Pruitt).

The Three Options

GO -2.21 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.74 EP
74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 69, worth -3.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model