Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 10 at the 60

New York Jets 24 – Tennessee Titans 17

(2:21) 4-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TEN 20, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 26 for 6 yards (34-J.Hardee; 27-I.Dunn).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +0.60 EP
70% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model