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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 18

Tennessee Titans 6 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 14-R.Bullock 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.77 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 18, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model