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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 14 at the 49

New York Jets 7 – Tennessee Titans 9

What Actually Happened

(1:55) 4-T.Morstead punts 40 yards to TEN 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.76 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
KICK -1.04 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model