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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 71

Tennessee Titans 17 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 8-J.Townsend punts 42 yards to NYJ 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at NYJ 47 for 18 yards (8-J.Townsend).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.57 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -1.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model