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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 4 at the 20

Tennessee Titans 17 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(3:46) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (35-S.Neasman) [37-B.Hall].

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.52 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 20, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model