Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 65

New York Jets 0 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(4:16) 4-T.Morstead punts 56 yards to TEN 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 31 for 22 yards (85-T.Wesco). PENALTY on TEN-92-O.Adeniyi, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at TEN 31.

The Three Options

GO -1.87 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.78 EP
73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model