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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 18 at the 28

Tennessee Titans 3 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(12:58) 14-R.Bullock 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-8-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.16 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 28, worth -1.17 EP
KICK +1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 38, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model