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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 76

New York Jets 0 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 4-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to TEN 27, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 80-C.Rogers to TEN 43 for 16 yards (34-J.Hardee).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +2.02 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 76, worth -4.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model