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San Francisco 49ers

HC Kyle Shanahan
@
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Detroit Lions

HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -9.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

SF
38.2%
DET
61.8%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Jared Goff (DET): +0.123 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • SF crossing 3 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

SF 23
–
DET 26
Projected margin: DET by 3 Projected total: 49

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

SF

Jalen Hurd WR Out Knee
Javon Kinlaw DT Doubtful Knee
Emmanuel Moseley CB Doubtful Knee
Kevin Givens DT Questionable Hip

DET

Taylor Decker T Out Finger
Michael Brockers DE Questionable Shoulder
Levi Onwuzurike DT Questionable Hip
A.J. Parker CB Questionable Shoulder
Nicholas Williams DE Questionable Elbow

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SF 41
–
DET 33

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 25 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:46 TD SF (5:46) (Shotgun) 5-T.Lance pass short left to 81-T.Sherfield for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. #5-T.Lance in at QB for this play. SF 6 – DET 0
  • Q2 13:33 TD DET (13:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 88-T.Hockenson for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 7 – DET 6
  • Q2 11:20 TD SF (11:20) 25-E.Mitchell right end for 38 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-95-R.Okwara, Defensive Offside, declined. SF 13 – DET 7
  • Q2 06:18 FG DET (6:18) 4-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox. SF 14 – DET 10
  • Q2 02:30 TD SF (2:30) (Shotgun) 23-J.Hasty up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 20 – DET 10
  • Q2 01:20 TD SF (1:20) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle intended for 88-T.Hockenson INTERCEPTED by 57-D.Greenlaw [55-D.Ford] at DET 39. 57-D.Greenlaw for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 27 – DET 10
  • Q2 00:08 FG SF (:08) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 31 – DET 10
  • Q3 08:08 TD SF (8:08) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass deep right to 19-D.Samuel for 79 yards, TOUCHDOWN [8-J.Collins]. SF 37 – DET 10
  • Q3 04:33 TD DET (4:33) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 32-D.Swift for 43 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 38 – DET 16
  • Q4 09:58 FG SF (9:58) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky. SF 41 – DET 17
  • Q4 01:56 TD DET (1:56) 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – DET 23
  • Q4 01:10 TD DET (1:10) (No Huddle) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 87-Q.Cephus for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SF 41 – DET 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 70%

    (12:06) 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams up the middle to SF 36 for -1 yards (3-J.Tartt).

  • Q1 DET 4th & 18 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 75%

    (9:41) 4-A.Seibert 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 1 at the 17
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (:10) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 6-T.Williams to SF 10 for 7 yards (2-J.Verrett).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 78%

    (6:18) 4-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (:56) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to SF 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 28 for 7 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

  • Q2 SF 4th & 7 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 90%

    (:08) 9-R.Gould 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 SF 4th & 18 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 73%

    (11:25) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 14 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 41%

    (10:23) 3-J.Fox punts 38 yards to SF 9, Center-47-S.Daly, fair catch by 6-M.Sanu.

  • Q3 DET 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to DET 40 for 6 yards (98-A.Key).

  • Q3 SF 4th & 2 at the 55
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (:41) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 43 yards to DET 12, Center-46-T.Pepper, out of bounds.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 15 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:48) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to SF 36, Center-47-S.Daly. 6-M.Sanu to SF 47 for 11 yards (39-J.Jacobs).

  • Q4 SF 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 73%

    (9:58) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 5 at the 47
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 41%

    (7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Benson.

  • Q4 SF 4th & 4 at the 47
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 41%

    (5:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to DET 14, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-36-M.Harris.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 9 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 88%

    (:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [56-S.Ebukam].