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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 47

San Francisco 49ers 41 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 33 yards to DET 14, Center-46-T.Pepper, downed by SF-36-M.Harris.

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.63 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 47, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 13, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP