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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 35

Detroit Lions 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:06) 71-L.Stenberg reported in as eligible. 30-J.Williams up the middle to SF 36 for -1 yards (3-J.Tartt).

The Three Options

GO +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.12 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 35, worth -1.29 EP
KICK +1.08 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.37 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.03 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model