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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 5 at the 47
Detroit Lions 17 – San Francisco 49ers 41
What Actually Happened
(7:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 17-T.Benson.
The Three Options
GO
-0.05 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.84 EP
- 57% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.26 EP
KICK
-0.60 EP
- 41% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 59% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT
-0.37 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
