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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Detroit Lions
4th & 8 at the 31
Detroit Lions 7 – San Francisco 49ers 14
What Actually Happened
(6:18) 4-A.Seibert 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-S.Daly, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+0.66 EP
-
34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.45 EP
- 66% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.28 EP
KICK
+1.17 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 78% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
- 22% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.84 EP
PUNT
-0.18 EP
- San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
