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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 66

Detroit Lions 10 – San Francisco 49ers 38

What Actually Happened

(6:36) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle to DET 40 for 6 yards (98-A.Key).

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.71 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 24, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model