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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 24

Detroit Lions 33 – San Francisco 49ers 41

What Actually Happened

(:17) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 14-A.St. Brown [56-S.Ebukam].

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +2.60 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 24, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.01 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.82 EP