Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 93

Detroit Lions 17 – San Francisco 49ers 38

(13:48) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to SF 36, Center-47-S.Daly. 6-M.Sanu to SF 47 for 11 yards (39-J.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +1.12 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 93, worth -5.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model