Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 78

Detroit Lions 10 – San Francisco 49ers 28

(:56) 3-J.Fox punts 57 yards to SF 21, Center-47-S.Daly. 11-B.Aiyuk pushed ob at SF 28 for 7 yards (45-J.Cabinda).

The Three Options

GO -2.33 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.31 EP
68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.05 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model