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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 18 at the 34

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Detroit Lions 10

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 9-R.Gould 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.79 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 34, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 27% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model