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Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
Sunday 2019-12-29 · 13:00 U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 36.5

Win Probability

CHI
48.8%
MIN
51.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to CHI: Sean Mannion (MIN) -0.336 vs Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.040 EPA/dropback (MIN starting Sean Mannion in place of Kirk Cousins)
  • CHI offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • MIN defense: -0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Sean Mannion (MIN) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

CHI 20
–
MIN 21
Projected margin: MIN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

CHI

Taylor Gabriel WR Out Concussion
Eddie Goldman DT Out Concussion
Akiem Hicks DT Out Elbow
Bobby Massie T Doubtful Ankle
Rashaad Coward T Doubtful Knee
Prince Amukamara CB Questionable Hamstring

MIN

Eric Kendricks LB Out Quadricep
Dalvin Cook RB Out Shoulder
Jayron Kearse S Questionable Foot
Mackensie Alexander CB Questionable Knee
Alexander Mattison RB Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CHI 21
–
MIN 19

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:44 FG CHI (7:44) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 3 – MIN 0
  • Q1 00:48 FG CHI (:48) 15-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 6 – MIN 0
  • Q2 09:21 FG MIN (9:21) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. CHI 6 – MIN 3
  • Q2 06:11 SAF CHI (6:11) 23-M.Boone left tackle tackled in End Zone for -1 yards, SAFETY (44-N.Kwiatkoski). CHI 8 – MIN 3
  • Q2 01:56 FG CHI (1:56) 15-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 11 – MIN 3
  • Q2 00:02 FG MIN (:02) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. CHI 11 – MIN 6
  • Q3 09:58 TD CHI (9:58) (Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery up the middle for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 17 – MIN 6
  • Q4 14:17 TD MIN (14:17) 23-M.Boone right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CHI 18 – MIN 12
  • Q4 08:59 FG MIN (8:59) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. CHI 18 – MIN 16
  • Q4 04:57 FG MIN (4:57) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. CHI 18 – MIN 19
  • Q4 00:12 FG CHI (:12) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CHI 21 – MIN 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 2 at the 8
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 97%

    (7:44) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 15 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 95%

    (:48) 15-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 9 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 92%

    (9:21) 5-D.Bailey 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 17 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to MIN 1, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 4 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 94%

    (1:56) 15-E.Pineiro 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 1 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 91%

    (:02) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:55) 2-B.Colquitt punts 52 yards to CHI 24, Center-58-A.Cutting, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 58
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:07) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to CHI 42 for no gain (34-A.Sendejo).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (13:27) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 81-O.Johnson to MIN 20 for 8 yards (35-R.Nall).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 18 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 90%

    (8:59) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 3 at the 16 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 94%

    (4:57) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 9 at the 51 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 30%

    (2:36) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 88-R.Ridley to MIN 19 for 32 yards (38-K.Boyd).

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 98%

    (:12) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.