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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 58

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 57 yards to MIN 1, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.97 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -3.22 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model