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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 66

Chicago Bears 18 – Minnesota Vikings 13

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 54 yards to MIN 12, Center-48-P.Scales. 81-O.Johnson to MIN 20 for 8 yards (35-R.Nall).

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.83 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 66, worth -4.03 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.70 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 24, worth -1.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP