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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 16 – Chicago Bears 18

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 5-D.Bailey 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.69 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 16, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -0.85 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model