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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 18 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(:12) 15-E.Pineiro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
  • 39% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.93 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth +0.26 EP
KICK +2.93 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.00 EP
PUNT +0.04 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model