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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 58

Chicago Bears 18 – Minnesota Vikings 6

What Actually Happened

(3:07) 10-M.Trubisky up the middle to CHI 42 for no gain (34-A.Sendejo).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.70 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 58, worth -3.23 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 18, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model