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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 18 at the 21

Minnesota Vikings 13 – Chicago Bears 18

What Actually Happened

(8:59) 5-D.Bailey 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.08 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 31, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model