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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 15 at the 15

Chicago Bears 3 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(:48) 15-E.Pineiro 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +0.63 EP
  • 22% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.59 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 15, worth -0.75 EP
KICK +1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model