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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 20

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Chicago Bears 11

What Actually Happened

(:02) 5-D.Bailey 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +2.77 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 20, worth +0.00 EP
KICK +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 30, worth -0.04 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model