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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 8

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 15-E.Pineiro 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.52 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.14 EP