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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.0 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

MIA
39.7%
NYJ
60.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIA offense: -0.073 EPA/play over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • NYJ offense: -0.079 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Ryan Fitzpatrick (MIA): -0.042 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NYJ defense: -0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIA 20
–
NYJ 22
Projected margin: NYJ by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

MIA

Trevor Davis WR Out Not Injury Related
Zach Sieler DT Out Not Injury Related

NYJ

Le'Veon Bell RB Out Illness
Brian Poole CB Out Concussion
Jamal Adams S Doubtful Ankle
Chuma Edoga T Doubtful Knee
Matthias Farley S Doubtful Ankle
Arthur Maulet CB Doubtful Calf
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankles
Maurice Canady CB Questionable Illness
Ryan Griffin TE Questionable Illness
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Knee
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring
Paul Worrilow LB Questionable Quadricep

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 21
–
NYJ 22

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:10 FG MIA (3:10) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 13:53 TD NYJ (13:53) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep middle to 11-Ro.Anderson for 26 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 3 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 11:05 FG NYJ (11:05) 9-S.Ficken 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 3 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 05:44 FG MIA (5:44) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 6 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short left to 18-D.Thomas (40-N.Needham). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short left to 18-D.Thomas for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 6 – NYJ 15
  • Q2 00:22 FG MIA (:22) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 9 – NYJ 16
  • Q3 10:46 FG MIA (10:46) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 12 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 10:56 FG MIA (10:56) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 15 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 07:03 FG MIA (7:03) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 18 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 04:09 FG NYJ (4:09) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 18 – NYJ 19
  • Q4 01:37 FG MIA (1:37) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 21 – NYJ 19
  • Q4 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 9-S.Ficken 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. MIA 21 – NYJ 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 50%

    (11:25) 4-L.Edwards punts 36 yards to MIA 4, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-17-V.Smith.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (3:10) 7-J.Sanders 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 91%

    (11:05) 9-S.Ficken 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (5:44) 7-J.Sanders 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 4 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 96%

    (:22) 7-J.Sanders 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 13 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 95%

    (10:46) 7-J.Sanders 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 3 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 93%

    (6:09) 7-J.Sanders 34 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 14
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 94%

    (1:06) 69-C.McDermott reported in as eligible. 29-B.Powell left guard to MIA 14 for no gain (24-R.Lewis; 52-R.McMillan).

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 10 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:46) 2-M.Haack punts 45 yards to NYJ 41, Center-46-T.Pepper. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at MIA 47 for 12 yards (47-V.Biegel).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 39%

    (14:51) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Touchback.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 12 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 64%

    (10:56) 7-J.Sanders 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:27) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to MIA 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 48-M.Sherels MUFFS catch, and recovers at MIA 28. 48-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIA 35 for 7 yards (87-D.Brown).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 1 at the 29
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.31 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 77%

    (7:03) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 24 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 85%

    (4:09) 9-S.Ficken 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 19 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 91%

    (1:37) 7-J.Sanders 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.